As October draws to a close, global politics are flashing rare signs of calm — but traders aren’t letting their guard down. Ceasefire moves in Gaza, a fragile truce between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and stalled Ukraine diplomacy hint at de-escalation. Yet, Washington’s tariff barrage is keeping markets volatile, marking a new phase of geo-economic warfare.

Gaza | Ceasefire Holds, Eyes on Rebuild

The U.S.-brokered Gaza truce on October 13 has shifted focus to reconstruction — a $70 billion plan under a proposed international transitional authority, possibly led by Tony Blair. The framework sidelines Hamas and invites UN, U.S., and EU funding. Skirmishes continue, but momentum leans toward rebuilding and economic stabilization.

Ukraine | Talks Stalled, Tensions Frozen

Trump’s push for a ceasefire hit a wall after Moscow rejected terms demanding no territorial concessions. A planned Trump-Putin summit was cancelled, and the warfront remains active. Without fresh U.S. aid, Kyiv faces tough leverage, keeping Eastern Europe risk premiums high.

Pakistan–Afghanistan | Fragile Truce, Real Impact

After weeks of cross-border fighting, a Qatar- and Turkey-mediated ceasefire took effect October 19. Both sides pledged to halt militant support and reopen key border trade routes. Refugee flows are easing slightly. A follow-up meeting in Istanbul (Oct 25) will test the deal’s strength.

Tariffs | The Real Battlefield

Trump’s 100 % tariffs on Chinese goods have pushed U.S. average duties to a century high. The fallout: over $1.2 trillion in added corporate costs, consumer inflation climbing to 2.7 %, and U.S. GDP projected 0.5 pp lower in 2026. China and the EU are preparing counter-measures that could trim global growth by nearly 1 %.

Markets | Relief Meets Resistance

Positives:

• Lower geopolitical tension could cap oil near $80/barrel.

• Emerging-market assets see a mild rebound.

• Reconstruction in Gaza and South Asia may lift regional growth.

Negatives:

• Tariff pass-through weighs on consumers and durable-goods firms.

• Global equities stay choppy; Nasdaq flirts with bear levels.

• Gold >$4,000 underscores persistent hedge demand.

Trader Watchlist

• Catalysts: U.S. CPI (Oct 30) · Pak-Afghan truce review (Oct 25) · Trump-Xi tariff readout

• Plays: Long EM bonds · Short U.S. durables · Gold and oil vol hedges

• Risks: Ukraine escalation · Gaza relapse · Broader tariff retaliation

Outlook | Risk-On, But Fragile

Tentative peace gives traders breathing space, but tariff shocks keep volatility elevated. Expect short-term “TACO trades” — Trump Always Chickens Out — as investors balance optimism with caution. The multipolar pivot is real, but so are the risks.